Draft Success By Round

The NFL draft is fast approaching at the end of this month – it’s a crucial event in which teams select new players to add to their rosters. Teams use a variety of metrics to evaluate prospects, including historical averages by position at producing starting players with careers longer than three years. In this article, we will explore those averages and which positions have the highest and lowest success rates in the draft, across all rounds.

When examining the success rates by position, it is important to note that these figures can vary by round. In this case, we will look at success rates for all rounds of the draft. According to historical data from 2000 to 2020, offensive tackles still have the highest success rate of any position, with 58% of picks starting for at least three years across all rounds of the draft (NFL Research, 2021a). Offensive guards and centers also have high success rates, with 56% and 55% of picks respectively starting for at least three years across all rounds (NFL Research, 2021a).

On the other hand, some positions have lower success rates when it comes to producing starting players with careers longer than three years. Quarterbacks still have the second-lowest success rate, with only 36% of picks starting for at least three years across all rounds (NFL Research, 2021a). Running backs and wide receivers also have lower success rates, with 44% and 45% of picks respectively starting for at least three years across all rounds (NFL Research, 2021a).

It’s worth noting that success rates vary significantly by round. While offensive tackles have the highest success rate overall, they have a significantly higher success rate in the first round (71%) compared to the later rounds (41%) (NFL Research, 2021a). Similarly, quarterbacks have a higher success rate in the first round (50%) compared to the later rounds (23%) (NFL Research, 2021a).

Other positions also have success rate variations across different rounds of the draft. For example, tight ends have a higher success rate in the third round (43%) compared to the first (65%) and second (54%) rounds (NFL Research, 2021a). Similarly, wide receivers have a higher success rate in the second round (52%) compared to the first (62%) and third (43%) rounds (NFL Research, 2021a).

In conclusion, understanding historical averages by position at producing starting players with careers longer than three years can be a valuable tool for NFL teams when making draft decisions. While the success rates for each position can vary across different rounds, offensive tackles consistently have the highest success rate across all rounds of the draft, while quarterbacks consistently have the second-lowest success rate. By understanding these trends and variations, teams can make more informed decisions and increase their chances of drafting successful starters.

References: NFL Research. (2021a). Best draft picks by position since 2000. Retrieved from https://www.nfl.com/news/best-draft-picks-by-position-since-2000